I returned from Token2049 in Singapore and found Bitcoin at 125K.
But the most interesting thing isn't the price.
It's what's happening behind the price.
Narrative, macro, and fundamentals are aligned.
And that doesn't happen often.
Bitcoin has been in bull mode for years.
But we still haven't seen the parabolic takeoff.
Institutional investors have not yet entered in mass.
A hint?
Against gold, Bitcoin is still below 2021.
That speaks to the lag... and the potential.
70% of BTC is held by retail.
Institutions hold less than 10%.
But now ETFs, funds, and treasuries are coming in.
We are in the midst of a handover.
Just like in 2017.
Three keys to understanding the market:
‑ Macroeconomics
‑ Asset fundamentals
‑ Narrative
The narrative rules in the short term.
Macroeconomics rules in the long term.
The fundamentals tell you if it's worth holding.
Today Bitcoin is as follows:
‑ Bullish macro
‑ Strong fundamentals
‑ Bullish narrative
Yes, there is selling from old holders.
But there is larger institutional buying.
It is the transfer from one generation to another.
In the midst of all this, I was with the Exchange team in Singapore.
We talked about what's coming, and the new UI they're launching this year..
Link to the Exchange:
Learning to separate macro, fundamentals, and narrative isn't easy.
I made mistakes a thousand times.
But when you understand it, everything falls into place.
It's the framework that saved me from Luna and got me into BTC strongly in time.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin is not expensive.
It is in transition.
And the market still does not understand the magnitude of the institutional player that is coming.
This bull market has not ended.
Perhaps it hasn't even started seriously.
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