Monad has been listed on Pre-Markets, with an implied FDV of $13B on Hyperliquid.
The project recently raised $250M in funding, marking it as the first Layer 1 blockchain led by Paradigm.
Now's the time for a data-driven estimate. 👇
We reviewed all projects where Paradigm led at least one funding round and calculated the share of total supply allocated to eligible users.
Findings:
- Average across all projects: 20.6%
- Adjusted average (excluding outliers of 50% and 100%): 9.75%
This provides an estimated range for Monad’s airdrop size:
- Optimistic: 20.6% of $13.5B = $2.78B
- Moderate: 9.75% of $13.5B = $1.32B
Estimated total airdrop value range: $1.3B–$2.8B (pre-market).
To estimate the potential individual allocation, we analyzed eligible address counts from major Layer 1–2 airdrops.
Eligible address averages:
- Mean: 570K
- Adjusted mean (excluding high-end outliers): 454K
These serve as reference points for Monad’s potential user distribution.
Estimated per-user airdrop (after sybil filtering):
Optimistic scenario:
- $2.78B / 454K = $6,123 per user
- $2.78B / 570K = $4,877 per user
Moderate scenario:
- $1.32B / 454K = $2,907 per user
- $1.32B / 570K = $2,315 per user
Expected range: approximately $2.3K–$6.1K per eligible wallet.
6.36K
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