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txd102023
txd102023
The latest U.S. data reinforced stagflation concerns as PCE inflation rose to 3.8%, the highest level in about three years, while Q1 GDP growth was revised down to 1.6%. Core PCE remained elevated at 3.3%, well above the Fed's 2% target, suggesting inflation is proving stickier than policymakers hoped. The combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation puts the Fed in a difficult position. Rate cuts become harder to justify, yet the economy is also losing momentum. Markets have already shifted from expecting multiple cuts to debating whether rates may stay higher for longer. My take: the key takeaway is that both sides of the Fed's mandate are moving in the wrong direction at the same time—growth is slowing while inflation is accelerating. That's a challenging backdrop for risk assets, especially Bitcoin and high-growth stocks, which typically benefit from easier monetary policy. Until inflation shows a clearer path lower, the Fed has limited room to turn dovish.

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