ABL阿布辣2020

The cryptocurrency world in recent years can be said to have magnified human nature to the extreme. You think you are trading, but in reality, you are battling your own greed, fear, and luck. During a bull market, everyone feels like a genius, every random purchase goes up, and once leverage is applied, the world is yours. Not long ago, there were countless stories about financial freedom, but now it has turned into a reality show of forced liquidations. Huang Licheng, 335 liquidations. You read that right, it's not 3 times, not 35 times, but 335 times. This is no longer trading; this is being repeatedly educated by the market, and every lesson is very expensive. From once making 1.4 billion to now losing 1 billion, the period in between is not called volatility; it's called a plot twist in life. What's even harsher is that the account is left with only 30,000 dollars. The cruelest part of the market has never been whether you will lose, but rather that it will make you believe you won't lose when you are winning a lot. Then you slowly increase your position, amplify your leverage, boost your confidence, and in the end, take everything back in one last go. Many people laugh at such stories, but if you break down the elements of leverage, frequent trading, and emotional highs, it's really just amplifying the mistakes that most retail investors make by 100 times. The market has never lacked geniuses; what it lacks are those who can survive until the end. Some people lose because they can't understand trends, some lose because they can't control risks, but more people lose because they don't know when to stop, which is very similar to day trading in the stock market, where they always believe they will win. 335 liquidations are not just a record. It's more like a reminder that if you don't have risk control, the market will do it for you. What you earn by luck will ultimately be lost by skill. $ETH

PANews May 24 report, according to OnchainLens monitoring, a certain whale opened a 25x leverage GOLD long position, with a current position value of 12.6 million USD. The whale also holds a 20x leverage crude oil short position, currently with an unrealized profit exceeding 324,000 USD. $XAUT $CL

The True Meaning of Perpetual Contract Leverage 1. Leverage Multiplier vs. Actual Position Size In perpetual contracts, the leverage multiplier is just an "opening tool." What truly determines risk is how many times your position size is relative to your margin. The usual safe practice is to open positions proportional to your available funds. What does 10x one layer position mean? 10x one layer position means the contract is opened at 10x leverage, but the position size is one-tenth. Actually, the contract multiplier itself is not that important; the key is how many times your position size is relative to your margin. For example: If you transfer 300 USDT into your contract account for trading, but each time you open a position your position size is only 300 USDT, then effectively you are opening a full position at 1x leverage. So, one layer position equals one times your total margin, two layers equal two times. It's best to open positions based on layers, not leverage multiplier. Each order is generally 1-3 layers. Choosing 10x leverage → means you can use 1 USDT margin to open a 10 USDT position, but how much position you actually open is the key. 2. The True Definition of "One Layer Position" One layer position = using all your margin to open the maximum position size (i.e., 1x actual leverage). 10x one layer position means: you set leverage to 10x, but only use 1/10 of your total margin to open the position. At this time, your actual leverage = 1x. 20x two layer position: Leverage set to 20x, using 2/10 (i.e., 1/5) of your total margin to open the position, actual leverage = 2x. 3. Why is it recommended to think in terms of "layers" rather than leverage multiplier? Because: Different platforms have different maximum leverage (some 50x, some 125x, some 200x). Even at the same 50x, if you open positions with different proportions of margin, the risk is completely different. • Layers directly correspond to your risk tolerance and liquidation distance. Common practice among professional traders: • Single order: 1~3 layers (conservative to neutral) • Very strong signals: up to 4~5 layers • Very few exceed 5 layers at once (unless using a very high win-rate strategy)

What you need now is more patience

Big Trees Attract Wind: Polymarket Prediction Market Wallet Hacked! 5,000 POL Withdrawn Every 30 Seconds, Over $600,000 Evaporated! On-chain analytics platform Bubblemaps issued an alert that one of Polymarket's UMA CTF Adapter wallets was attacked. The attacker is withdrawing 5,000 $POL every 30 seconds, with losses exceeding $600,000 at the time of reporting. On-chain detective ZachXBT also warned that the attacker has dispersed funds to 15 addresses. Bubblemaps issued an emergency alert on X today (5/22), stating that the UMA CTF Adapter wallet used by Polymarket for settling prediction markets is under continuous attack. The attacker is extracting funds from the contract at a rate of 5,000 $POL every 30 seconds, with cumulative losses exceeding $600,000 and still rising at the time of reporting. Polymarket's latest statement clarifies that the hacked wallet is used for internal storage, separated from user funds and unrelated to market settlements. Bubblemaps directly calls on all users to "immediately suspend all Polymarket operations." On-chain detective ZachXBT also issued a warning confirming the ongoing attack. Attacker's Address Identified, Funds Dispersed to 15 Wallets According to on-chain data, the attacker's main address has been tagged as 0x8F98…9B91. The stolen funds were immediately dispersed into 15 different addresses, a typical prelude to on-chain money laundering: splitting, mixing, and finally cashing out through cross-chain bridges or centralized exchanges. The UMA CTF Adapter is the core settlement component of Polymarket's prediction market, responsible for verifying and settling market outcomes via UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The compromise of this contract indicates a vulnerability in the entire prediction market's settlement layer, potentially affecting more than the currently known loss amount. DeFi May Hacking Wave Continues to Burn This is already the third security incident Polymarket has faced recently. Previously, the platform experienced account theft due to a third-party login service vulnerability and faced data leak allegations (later denied by the official). The entire DeFi ecosystem has been hit by a wave of attacks in May, with five independent hacking incidents in a single week and a monthly total of 19 incidents, resulting in approximately $38.2 million in losses. Just yesterday, THORChain launched the ADR028 recovery plan for its $10.7 million hack. $POL

Brothers, how was your day today? Another day of the market maker pushing the wheelchair, while retail investors fall into the valley. The positive news from Wash's appointment has landed, meaning the negative news is fully out. Then they tell you he's a hawk, won't cut interest rates but might raise them instead. Could the person that Chuan personally helped up possibly go against the grain? 😂😂😂

U.S. Congressman Nick Begich (Republican - Alaska) officially introduced the American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) on May 21, aiming to transform President Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order signed in March 2025 into a codified law with long-term legal effect, providing a solid foundation for establishing a permanent strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States. The bill has bipartisan support and currently has more than a dozen co-sponsors in Congress. It will assign the Treasury Department to manage the Bitcoin reserve and establish a separate digital asset reserve for other federal-held crypto assets besides Bitcoin. Begich directly compares Bitcoin to gold, asserting that the market has clearly identified both as the dominant store of value in their respective asset classes. In an interview with Fox Business Channel, he stated: "Look at gold, it is the dominant precious metal reserve asset. Bitcoin accounts for about 60% of the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market. The market has made its choice; whether gold or Bitcoin, both are the primary stores of value in their asset classes." The ARMA bill is an upgraded version based on the previous BITCOIN Act. In March 2025, Begich and Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis jointly proposed related legislation. The new bill authorizes the Treasury to purchase up to 200,000 Bitcoins annually over five years, with the ultimate goal of accumulating 1 million Bitcoins—approximately 5% of the total global Bitcoin supply. All held Bitcoins will be locked for at least 20 years and cannot be sold. Currently, the U.S. government holds about 328,000 Bitcoins, mainly seized by law enforcement, including assets recovered from the Silk Road case and the 2022 Bitfinex hack. These Bitcoins currently lack a unified strategic management plan. Co-sponsor, North Carolina Congressman Pat Harrigan, emphasized the urgency of this issue: "The U.S. government already holds billions of dollars worth of seized Bitcoins but lacks a coherent management strategy. This situation must change." The bill's introduction comes amid a peak wave of crypto-friendly legislation in Washington. On May 13, the Senate Banking Committee passed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, paving the way for a regulatory framework for the crypto industry. Senator Lummis indicated the bill might reach a full Senate vote by mid-June, although she acknowledged this timeline might be optimistic. Meanwhile, the Treasury is intensifying efforts against crypto-related illicit financial activities. Under the "Operation Economic Fury," the U.S. has seized nearly $500 million in Iran-related crypto assets as of the end of April, further highlighting the government's need to develop a comprehensive digital asset management strategy. The White House has also signaled that specific operational details of the strategic Bitcoin reserve will be officially announced soon, with a senior official revealing that major legal obstacles have been cleared. $BTC #披萨节狂欢：预测哈希能赢BTC，你敢预测一下吗？

According to multiple media reports, including Xinhua News Agency, Reuters, Eastmoney, Lianhe Zaobao, etc., Kevin Warsh will be officially sworn in as the Federal Reserve Chairman at the White House, presided over by President Trump, on May 22, 2026 (today) local time.  • Time Correspondence: Around 11:00 AM Eastern Time (ET), corresponding to 11:00 PM Beijing Time (UTC+8) the same day.  • Background: Chairman Powell's term ended on May 15, and he is currently serving as interim chairman during the transition. Warsh was confirmed by the Senate with a 54:45 vote on May 13, with a 4-year term. This is an important event in the policy transition promoted by the Trump administration. The market is closely watching the direction of monetary policy after Warsh takes office (such as interest rate cut expectations, regulatory stance, etc.). The expected impact of Warsh's appointment on risk markets (stock market, cryptocurrency, etc.) shows a dual nature of "short-term uncertainty/pressure, medium- to long-term depending on policy implementation." Warsh's policy characteristics (a mix of hawkish and dovish): Short-term dovish: Supports interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy, aligning with the Trump administration's preferences. May promote a "rate cut + balance sheet reduction" combination, attempting to lower short-term interest rates while reducing the Fed's balance sheet size. Structurally hawkish: Long-term advocate for a smaller Fed balance sheet (opposes excessive QE), emphasizes inflation control, and reducing market intervention. Has previously criticized zero interest rates and excessive easing. Personally holds crypto assets (has committed to divest), and has viewed Bitcoin and others positively as part of the financial system, but this does not directly determine monetary policy. Currently, US inflation is above target (recent data is high), energy prices are volatile, and employment is uneven. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have significantly cooled, with even the possibility of rate hikes. Warsh's first FOMC meeting after taking office will be a key "test." Short-term stance is mainly wait-and-see, paying attention to inflation data, yield trends, and Warsh's first public speech. Risk markets prefer "certainty," and increased volatility during the transition period is normal. If policy implementation leans toward "rate cut dominance," risk assets still have room to rebound; otherwise, adjustments may continue. #加息重回讨论桌：美债利率逼近19年高点 #美股、美債背離 $BTC

The divergence between US stocks and US Treasuries In global financial markets, the trends of US stocks and US Treasuries usually show a certain correlation, providing diversification for portfolios. However, when there is a clear divergence between stocks and bonds, it often indicates divergences in the market regarding economic outlook, inflation expectations, and policy directions. Recently, U.S. stocks have shown relative resilience, while Treasury yields have surged, forming a typical divergence pattern of "strong stocks and weak bonds." This phenomenon not only reflects the complexity of the current macro environment but also deserves in-depth analysis by drawing on historical cases. Current Overview of U.S. Stock and Treasury Divergence: As of May 2026, major U.S. stock indices such as the S&P 500 are still fluctuating at high levels, with some times approaching or setting new all-time highs. The market is mainly supported by AI technology giants, and investors remain optimistic about productivity improvements and corporate profit growth. In contrast, the U.S. Treasury market is facing significant selling pressure, with the 30-year Treasury yield briefly surpassing 5%, peaking at 5.18%–5.19%, the highest since 2007; The 10-year yield also rose to around 4.6%. Bond prices have fallen, long-term yields have risen rapidly, and the safe-haven function has been questioned. This stock-bond divergence is essentially a conflict in asset pricing logic: the stock market focuses on micro-level corporate growth and technology narratives, while the bond market is more sensitive to macro risks, including rising inflation, expanding fiscal deficits, and supply pressures. Main causes of deviation: First, inflation and energy price pressures are key drivers. Geopolitical factors (such as the conflict in Iran) have pushed up oil prices, strengthening market expectations for inflation. The bond market quickly priced in higher inflation premiums, leading to higher long-term yields; while the stock market believes that productivity gains brought by AI can partially alleviate cost pressures, viewing it as a short-term disturbance. Second, the U.S. high fiscal deficit and ongoing demand for bond issuance have intensified long-term supply pressures. Potential tax cuts and spending policies further push up long-term bond yields, steepening the yield curve. Third, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are continuously delayed, with the possibility of a slight rate hike in pricing. Short-term rates remain relatively stable, but long-term rates are dominated by inflation and fiscal factors. Finally, asset concentration also amplifies divergence: a few tech giants support stock indices, while bonds reflect systemic risks to the overall economy. Historical cases of stock-bond divergence: Historically, stock-bond divergences have not been rare and can provide important references. The 1994 'Bond Market Massacre' is a classic case. At that time, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raised interest rates to combat inflation, causing long-term yields to surge by 150–200 basis points and causing bond prices to drop sharply. However, after only a slight pullback, U.S. stocks resumed their gains. Stock markets benefit from economic growth expectations, while bonds are facing interest rate and inflation shocks, closely mirroring the current situation. The 2013 "Taper Tantrum" is also noteworthy. The Federal Reserve hinted at tapering quantitative easing (QE), and the market anticipated an earlier rate hike, causing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to quickly rise from around 1.6% to 3%. Despite the volatility in the bond market, U.S. stocks still rose about 30% that year, as investors interpreted policy shifts as positive signals of strong economic strength. Ultimately, after yields stabilized, the stock market continued its bull run. 2022 is a negative example. Facing high inflation, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates, causing both U.S. stocks and Treasuries to fall simultaneously, resulting in a rare "double blow to stocks and bonds." This year highlighted the failure of traditional negative correlation diversification effects in a high-inflation environment, with the 60/40 portfolio lagging far behind. Looking further ahead, since the 1870s, the correlation between stocks and bonds has mostly been positively correlated or close to zero. During the low inflation and low interest rate era from 2000 to 2020, the negative correlation was more pronounced, but this was actually a relative exception. During the stagflation period of the 1970s, stocks and bonds often fluctuated in the same direction. Although the stock market was volatile, some energy and commodity-related sectors provided support. Risks and Implications of Deviation: History shows that stock-bond divergence can persist in the short term, and the stock market often "ignores" the warnings of the bond market amid optimistic narratives. However, if long-term yields continue to climb (such as breaking above 5.5%–6%), it will increase corporate financing costs, suppress valuations, and may ultimately trigger a correction in the stock market. Although the current concentration of AI provides support, it also amplifies systemic risks. Investors need to remain cautious in this environment. In the short term, close attention should be paid to tech giants' earnings reports, geopolitical developments, and Federal Reserve signals. In terms of allocation, you can moderately increase your cash or short-term bond positions to diversify concentrated risk, and consider using hedging tools. In the era of high interest rates, bonds offer higher yields but still carry interest rate risks; The stock market should be wary of overvaluations and the potential consequences of widening divergences. $BTC #美债利率近19年新高: Risk assets are under pressure across the board

US Treasury 5% defense line completely breached! Bank of America calls it doomsday, Goldman Sachs says buy, Japan directly sells off Bank of America Chief Strategist Michael Hartnett wrote about the "Maginot Line" in his Flow Show weekly report last week. He was referring to the 5% yield line on the 30-year US Treasury bond. Once this line is "seriously broken," the gates of doomsday will open. On May 14, the yield rose to 5.16%, the highest since 2007. The gate has opened. So how will the biggest buyers watching the US Treasury market react? Completely different reactions The 5% defense line is broken, and each institution reacts differently. Barclays warns that the 30-year yield could surge to 5.5%, BNP Paribas strategist Guneet Dhingra is more direct: "There is no anchor point above 5%." He advises clients to look at 5.25% to 5.5%. Steven Barrow, Head of G10 Strategy at Standard Bank London, predicts the 10-year will also break 5% this year, meaning the entire yield curve is shifting upward. But Goldman Sachs says some long bond indicators have already shown allocation value. They maintain a neutral rating with a slight preference for curve steepening, adding: if the labor market weakens further, US Treasuries could rebound. Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni is even calmer, saying he is "not scared," believing the 10-year normal range is 4.25% to 4.75%, and near 5% is actually a buy-in point for both stocks and bonds. And the "Bond King" Jeff Gundlach doesn’t even bother to talk about buying; in his annual webcast he said: "Holding cash is better than holding 30-year US Treasuries." His 2026 allocation advice? 20% cash plus hard assets. The 2-year will outperform the 30-year. Five completely contradictory conclusions have emerged above. This is the real signal, not the 5% itself, but Wall Street’s complete lack of consensus on what to do after 5%. When the smartest group in the market fundamentally disagrees on direction, it usually means they themselves are uncertain. Japan has already acted Everyone is watching 5%, 5.5%, maybe 6%, but the biggest structural change in the US Treasury market in 2026 is in the buyers. Japanese investors net sold $29.6 billion worth of US Treasuries, agency bonds, and municipal bonds in Q1, the largest quarterly reduction in nearly four years. Japan is the largest overseas holder of US Treasuries globally, holding about $1 trillion. The reason is simple: the Bank of Japan continues to raise rates, and the domestic 30-year JGB yield has surged to 4.2%, a historic high since issuance in 1999. If you are the CIO of a Japanese life insurance company, your home country’s long bonds can already give you a 4.2% yield with zero currency risk and zero credit risk. Why would you buy something with only about 1% higher yield but with the risk of dollar depreciation? TD Economics estimates that Japan’s gradual withdrawal from the US Treasury market could push the US 10-year yield up by 20 to 50 basis points in the medium term. Fortune’s headline last week was even more blunt: "America’s largest foreign creditor (Japan) may soon sell US Treasuries and bring the money home." The US Treasury market has built a psychological defense line that "5% is the bottom line," but what really shakes US Treasuries is the shift in buyer structure. The interest bill is already scarier than you think If you think yields are just a trader’s matter, take a look at the US government’s own bill. Federal debt is $38.4 trillion. The annual deficit exceeds $1.7 trillion, about 6% of GDP. Interest payments alone will exceed $1.2 trillion in 2026—more than the defense budget. Jamie Dimon said to CNBC on April 28: "Some kind of bond crisis is coming, and then we will be forced to deal with it." Ray Dalio’s numbers are more specific; he said if the deficit is not cut from 7.5% of GDP to 3%, "we are very likely to face a severe debt crisis in the coming years." He pointed out that interest payments are squeezing public services, and the government is trapped by its own signed bills, unable to move. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink admitted in his annual letter to investors earlier this year that the market underestimates the moment when fiscal policy (not monetary policy) becomes the core risk. If international investors start questioning the US fiscal trajectory, foreign holdings could significantly decline. He also left a caveat: if the US can maintain 3% annual growth for ten to fifteen years, the debt-to-GDP ratio will actually shrink. 3% growth rate, for fifteen consecutive years. In an environment where inflation sticks at 3.8%, oil prices keep rising due to Middle East tensions, and 30-year mortgage rates stay above 6.1%. Judge for yourself whether this assumption is reasonable. New referee takes the stage Kevin Warsh officially took over as Fed Chair on May 13. Powell’s era ended on May 16. Warsh is hawkish. The market consensus is that he tends to keep rates high longer, ensuring inflation is thoroughly crushed before considering rate cuts. But the situation Warsh faced on his first day was worse than anyone expected. Energy supply disruptions, AI-driven capital demand, plus huge fiscal deficits—all three lines are pushing up global borrowing costs simultaneously. Warsh’s statements at the Senate hearing temporarily calmed the market; the 10-year yield briefly stabilized after his confirmation. Investors temporarily bought into his claim of "maintaining Fed independence." FAQ ⚠️ What does the 30-year US Treasury yield breaking 5% mean? The 30-year yield at 5.16% is the highest level since 2007. Bank of America strategist Hartnett calls it the "gate of doomsday." Historically, similar yield surges (Japan 1989, US 1999, China 2007) marked the end of boom cycles, but currently Wall Street has no consensus on the subsequent trend. What impact does Japan selling US Treasuries have on the market? Japan is the largest overseas holder of US Treasuries $BTC

Just saw this in an article: Ethereum $ETH just received a TD Sequential indicator buy signal. I think a rebound might occur next. So what exactly is the TD Sequential indicator? TD Sequential is a trend reversal indicator developed by technical analysis master Tom DeMark, also often called the "Magic Nine Turns" or TD9/TD13. It is mainly used to identify the market trend's "exhaustion points" and predict potential reversal timing. The basic principle of TD Sequential: Unlike moving averages or RSI, which directly measure momentum or overbought/oversold conditions, it judges whether a trend has gone on too long or too extreme through "time counting," thus possibly reversing. The indicator is divided into two main phases: 1. Setup phase (activation/preparation phase, usually labeled 1~9): • Buy Setup (bullish reversal signal): 9 consecutive candlesticks, each closing price lower than that of the 4 candlesticks before it (indicating sustained selling pressure in a downtrend but possibly nearing exhaustion) • Sell Setup: conversely, 9 consecutive closes higher than the previous 4 (uptrend exhaustion) • When "9" is completed (TD9), it is often regarded as an important reversal warning point. 2. Countdown phase (countdown phase, usually labeled 1~13): • Starts only after Setup is completed. • Buy Countdown: Counts 13 candlesticks meeting specific conditions (such as closing below the low of 2 candlesticks prior, etc.) A "13" completion signals even stronger. • This phase provides a more precise low-risk entry point. There are also enhanced rules like "Price Flip" (price reversal) conditions to reset the count, and "Perfected Setup" (strong Setup) among others. Why does the price tend to rise after a buy signal (TD Buy Setup 9)? • Trend exhaustion logic: A Buy Setup 9 after continuous decline means sellers have been pushing prices down hard for some time (statistically reaching an extreme) Buyers start to have a chance to take over, and selling pressure gradually exhausts. • Increased reversal probability: Historically, after TD Sequential 9 or 13 completes, trend reversals or at least short-term rebounds often occur. Its design is to capture moments of "overextension." • Psychological and self-fulfilling effect: Many traders (especially institutions or technical traders) pay attention to this indicator, and when the signal appears, buying surges in, pushing prices up, creating a positive feedback loop. This time Ethereum shows a buy signal, indicating a short-term chance of rebound or reversal, but ultimately it depends on overall market conditions (such as macro factors, Bitcoin trends, and ETH's own fundamentals). Note: It is not a 100% accurate indicator, just a tool to increase reversal probability. False signals (especially in strong trends) still exist. Best used in conjunction with other confirmations (like volume, support levels, larger time frames, etc.). $ETH #推迟打击非停战：美伊本周窗口待定