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Orange Evening Interpretation 9.22 The market is extremely polarized right now, with Binance's various favorites and adopted coins responsible for the rise, while the altcoins we hold are responsible for the fall. Every crazy weekend is followed by a bleak Monday; today we saw two waterfalls in one day. In the morning, Bitcoin dropped from 115k to 114k, and after the lunch break, it plunged again from 114k directly to 112k, causing the altcoins to crash as well. One can only say that the worst hit in this wave of market is the so-called value investors and diamond hands, those holding a lot of altcoins. You can take a look at the price movement of $aster; although it peaked at 2u yesterday and then fell back to a low of 1.35, it quickly rebounded above 1.5. The key point is that during today’s market waterfall, aster showed no reaction at all and is still around the price of 1.5. One can only say that the market is extremely polarized right now, with Binance's various favorites and adopted coins responsible for the rise, while the altcoins we hold are responsible for the fall. Such a market is really too healthy. In the past few days, the performance of Binance alpha has already been enough to be called the altcoin season, with at least two projects doubling in price every day, while most of the old altcoins on CEX are still hovering in the bear market range. Imagine if there were no Binance market right now, would the altcoins be in a pure bear market? Therefore, when we are in such a polarized and fragmented cryptocurrency market, the first thing we need to do is not to study technology or fundamentals, but to distinguish which projects are no longer in a bull market and which coins are dead, and then quickly withdraw funds to invest in those projects that truly have narrative potential. If you don’t know which projects are dead, I’ll mention a simple method. If an altcoin's current price is at or near its previous highs, then this coin is definitely in the main narrative for the future, considered a tier-one quality. Basically, the coins we often hear about in the media fall into this category; if an altcoin's price has returned to about half of its previous high, then this coin is considered a potentially high-quality coin, such as $aave, $link, $doge, and $xlm, which are tier-two quality; if the price has returned to about one-fifth of its peak, such as $avax, $uni, $arb, $op, $imx, etc., these are considered slightly outdated but still close to the main narrative range, tier-three quality coins; if an altcoin has dropped below one-tenth of its peak, for example, $crv, $xtz, $iota, $dot, etc., then the narrative for this project is completely outdated. However, considering that the market cap and number of developers for these projects are still large, these projects are also hard to die off; one can only say that they are likely to underperform the market in the long run. If a project has dropped dozens or hundreds of times from its peak and is still in the historical low range, then this project is basically dead; at least its development team has been cut off, and many of these coins' founding teams have gone on to launch multiple new coins, taking the money they raised and earned from this project with them. Therefore, these projects have no opportunities left, and can almost be called dead coins. I suggest that if you still hold onto these last two categories of altcoins, you should sell them quickly during this downturn. There are plenty of opportunities in the cryptocurrency market, so many that you can catch a hot trend on a weekly basis. As long as you can seize a hot trend in a week, you might turn things around. But the premise is that you are still at the table; if you are holding all junk coins and have no money to invest when a good project comes along, then you have effectively left the table, and it’s normal not to make money.