The Jobs Market Won't Let the Fed Cut. Now One Governor Says Hike. US May ADP payrolls came in at 122K, above the 117K estimate and the strongest reading since January 2025. April was revised up to 105K. Small businesses led hiring. Trade and transportation topped sectors. Job-stayer wage growth held at 4.4%, unchanged and sticky. None of this gives the Fed a reason to move. The FOMC meets June 16-17 with rates at 3.50-3.75% and the data pointing one direction: hold. A labor market this resilient, with wage growth this persistent, doesn't build the case for cuts. It builds the case for patience. Then Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the quiet part out loud: the Fed may need to hike this year. Not cut. Hike. Her argument is that policy isn't actually restrictive enough given where inflation is tracking. She's the dissenter for now, but dissenters at the Fed have a habit of becoming consensus when the data cooperates. Friday's NFP is the number that matters most this week. ADP and NFP diverge frequently, but two consecutive beats pointing in the same direction will push rate hike expectations into the June FOMC conversation in a way markets aren't currently pricing. The Fed funds futures market is still leaning on cuts by year-end. Logan's comment is the first serious challenge to that consensus from inside the institution. Oil above $90 on Iran tensions, wages sticky at 4.4%, payrolls beating estimates. The "cuts are coming" trade is getting harder to hold. Does Friday's NFP change your macro positioning? Share your thoughts in the comments 👇 $SPCX $BTC $NVDA #ADPJobsRunHot