BTC at 74,300. ETF outflows hit 2.26 billion in two weeks. The surface reads panic. But on-chain, the old whales haven't moved an inch. The real storm isn't in the candles. It's in Washington and Tehran. New Fed chief Walsh just took office, signaling both balance sheet reduction and rate cuts. US bond yields spiked to 5.2%, highest since 2007. That means money just got more expensive, and all risk assets feel the squeeze. But Walsh is Trump's pick — a full market crash isn't the play. Rate hike talk is back on the table, with year-end pricing already adjusting. Meanwhile, Japan struggles, Europe is messy. Global capital does the math and circles back to BTC as the hardest asset. 74,000 is looking like a base, not a breakdown. Then there's the ARMA pivot: from buying 1 million tokens to locking just 200k in supply. Most read it as bearish. But look closer — the US is signaling it won't sell. That's a long-term confidence signal for holders, not a selloff trigger. On geopolitics, Israel is preparing military options against Iran. Oil and copper are climbing. Risk-off mood is rising. BTC and gold take short-term heat, but hard assets only get stronger when tensions spike. SEC delaying tokenization plans is near-term noise for RWA plays. But the compliance framework is inevitable. Smart money is already accumulating RWA tokens at these stressed levels. The Fed wants to have it both ways. Markets aren't buying it. But whales are. At 74,000, retail hesitates. BlackRock doesn't. Personal analysis only. NFA. DYOR. #FedHikesBackOnTheTable #SECTokenizationDelay #DailyOrbit